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When we were Back-to-the-land hippies, this was our Bible. The Whole Earth Catalog has been saved on the internet.
My wife is holding our first daughter, as we take a sunset ride over the hay field on a sled pulled by Sue & Sal, our matched Percherons.
When we were Back-to-the-land hippies, this was our Bible. The Whole Earth Catalog has been saved on the internet.
Published: April 3, 2024 11:51am EDT
Tony Milligan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
King’s College London provides funding as a member of The Conversation UK.
We have no good reason to believe that aliens have ever contacted Earth. Sure, there are conspiracy theories, and some rather strange reports about harm to cattle, but nothing credible. Physicist Enrico Fermi found this odd. His formulation of the puzzle, proposed in the 1950s and now known as “the Fermi Paradox”, is still key to the search for extraterrestrial life (Seti) and messaging by sending signals into space (Meti).
The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, and life is at least 3.5 billion years old. The paradox states that, given the scale of the universe, favourable conditions for life are likely to have occurred many, many times. So where is everyone? We have good reasons to believe that there must be life out there, but nobody has come to call.
This is an issue that the character Ye Wenjie wrestles with in the first episode of Netflix’s 3 Body Problem. Working at a radio observatory, she does finally receive a message from a member of an alien civilisation – telling her they are a pacifist and urging her not to respond to the message or Earth will be attacked.
The series will ultimately offer a detailed, elegant solution to the Fermi Paradox, but we will have to wait until the second season.
Or you can read the second book in Cixin Liu’s series, The Dark Forest. Without spoilers, the explanation set out in the books runs as follows: “The universe is a dark forest. Every civilisation is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost, gently pushing aside branches that block the path and trying to tread without sound.”
Ultimately, everybody is hiding from everyone else. Differential rates of technological progress make an ongoing balance of power impossible, leaving the most rapidly progressing civilisations in a position to wipe out anyone else.
Read on by clicking on Page 2 below…
New research corroborates this threat that I featured in my Blog back in 2015 https://terryorisms.com/2015/10/12/how-global-warming-can-start-an-ice-age/
Superstorms, abrupt climate shifts and New York City frozen in ice. That’s how the blockbuster Hollywood movie “The Day After Tomorrow” depicted an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation and the catastrophic consequences.
While Hollywood’s vision was over the top, the 2004 movie raised a serious question: If global warming shuts down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is crucial for carrying heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes, how abrupt and severe would the climate changes be?
Twenty years after the movie’s release, we know a lot more about the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation. Instruments deployed in the ocean starting in 2004 show that the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium. Studies also suggest that the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
In a new study using the latest generation of Earth’s climate models, we simulated the flow of fresh water until the ocean circulation reached that tipping point.
The results showed that the circulation could fully shut down within a century of hitting the tipping point, and that it’s headed in that direction. If that happened, average temperatures would drop by several degrees in North America, parts of Asia and Europe, and people would see severe and cascading consequences around the world.
We also discovered a physics-based early warning signal that can alert the world when the Atlantic Ocean circulation is nearing its tipping point.
Ocean currents are driven by winds, tides and water density differences.
In the Atlantic Ocean circulation, the relatively warm and salty surface water near the equator flows toward Greenland. During its journey it crosses the Caribbean Sea, loops up into the Gulf of Mexico, and then flows along the U.S. East Coast before crossing the Atlantic.
This current, also known as the Gulf Stream, brings heat to Europe. As it flows northward and cools, the water mass becomes heavier. By the time it reaches Greenland, it starts to sink and flow southward. The sinking of water near Greenland pulls water from elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and the cycle repeats, like a conveyor belt.
Too much fresh water from melting glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet can dilute the saltiness of the water, preventing it from sinking, and weaken this ocean conveyor belt. A weaker conveyor belt transports less heat northward and also enables less heavy water to reach Greenland, which further weakens the conveyor belt’s strength. Once it reaches the tipping point, it shuts down quickly.
Published: December 6, 2023 2:41pm EST
Christmas today is a big business, and one part of that is the multibillion-dollar business of selling Christmas trees. The U.S. Christmas tree industry is so large, it even has two dueling trade groups: one that supports natural trees and the other, artificial.
We are two business school professors whose students asked us to explain the economic impact of the winter holidays. In the holiday spirit of sharing, we’re giving you some facts to discuss while trimming your tree.
There are three different ways to get a natural Christmas tree.
First, you can go into a national forest and chop down your own. Relatively few Americans do this, even though a permit costs $10 or less, because government rules require that the tree you chop must be more than 200 feet from any road, campground or recreation area. Since dragging a tree destroys its branches and needles, the 200-foot rule means that large, heavy trees have to be carried a fair distance through often snowy woods.
Your second option is to buy or chop down a tree at a local Christmas tree farm. Christmas tree farms got a big promotional boost when Taylor Swift revealed she grew up on one, but she’s hardly alone: There are nearly 3,000 Christmas tree farms across the U.S., according to the Department of Agriculture’s most recent figures. These farms sell around 12 million trees a year.
While being a Christmas tree farmer sounds idyllic, it isn’t very profitable, since Christmas trees take over a decade to grow large enough to sell. Long lead times combined with changing and unpredictable weather have pushed many of these farms out of business. Almost 500 U.S. Christmas tree farms shuttered between 2014 and 2019, the USDA found.
The third way to buy a tree is from a local retailer that imports trees. In 2022, the U.S. imported almost 3 million natural Christmas trees, primarily from Canada. Imports have been growing steadily: In 2014, the U.S. imported only half as many trees.
Together, this means that in 2022, roughly 15 million locally grown or imported natural trees were sold in the country.
Some people like to buy their trees from a nonprofit, like the Boy Scouts. These fundraisers are also supplied from local Christmas tree farms or imports.
Artificial trees are popular with people who don’t like the mess and fuss of natural trees. Replica trees primarily come from China, and most are made in the Chinese city of Yiwu. The U.S. imported over 20 million artificial trees in 2022 alone.
And they’re becoming increasingly common. In 2014, the U.S. imported 11 million artificial trees and sold almost 22 million natural trees. This means that back in 2014, almost two real trees were purchased for every artificial one. A decade later, natural tree sales had fallen to around 15 million, but over 20 million artificial trees were imported.
One result of the shift to replica trees is a reduction in house fires. Natural trees that aren’t watered dry out and sometimes catch on fire. In 1980, the U.S. saw about 850 Christmas tree fires that caused 80 people to be injured. Four decades later, the number of annual fires fell to 180, with only eight injuries.
Some people get sticker shock when they see how much Christmas trees cost. Those shocking prices don’t come from the wholesale level. Last year, wholesalers importing entire shipping containers paid $22 for each artificial tree, on average, according to U.S. government statistics. Importers of natural trees paid roughly the same price. Together, artificial and natural importers paid over a half billion dollars for trees to sell in 2022.
Unfortunately, there are no official statistics on how much Americans pay for Christmas trees at the retail level. There’s a general consensus that artificial trees cost more than natural trees, but the extra money may be worth it because they last more than one season.
Consumer surveys by the two competing trade groups suggest that people paid in the range of $80 to $100 for their trees in 2022. This means the markup on Christmas trees is around 400% to 500%. That’s about the same as a pair of designer jeans or a drink from a hotel minibar.
Multiplying the $80 to $100 price by the 15 million natural trees and 20 million artificial trees sold in 2022 means Christmas trees are roughly a $3 billion business annually — without including any extra money spent on the decorations.
So, with so many options, how do you settle on which sort of tree to buy? Price, environmental factors, convenience and even allergies are all important factors to consider. There’s no easy answer. One of us can’t decide and has multiple trees, ranging from a 12-inch artificial tree handed down from his grandmother to a 7-foot-tall natural Fraser fir purchased at his local Christmas tree farm.
Whatever you decide – natural, artificial, both or no tree at all – just remember to add a dash of cheer to your winter celebration. After all, the best things about the season are free.
A few things – the number of transportation deaths per 100k people was 20% higher in 2000 vs 2020. – Suicides have gone up, but have always hovered around the transportation rate, so it didn’t take much to overtake it – Fentanyl scourge is China’s revenge for the Opium wars- cancer treatments have Improved
The biggest new attraction that just opened in Las Vegas is a $2.3 billion worlds’ biggest sphere. U-2 will inaugurate it with a concert.
The outside has 1.2 billion LED lights. This is an artist that lights it up with his constantly changing AI generated images.
Here is some background on this mega project…
Confirmation Bias – We interpret new information as confirmation of our existing beliefs.
Availability Bias – We rely on information that comes to our mind easily/the quickest.
Action Bias – We favor action over inaction. That’s why we sell or buy prematurely.
Overconfidence – We overestimate our own knowledge and ability. Often because we know too little to understand better. (Less knowledge => more confidence)
Survivorship Bias – This is a sample bias that occurs when we assess only successful outcomes and disregard failures.
Reactive Devaluation – Automatically devaluing opinions from opposing sites or people you dislike.
Ostrich Effect – The tendency to avoid negative (financial) information by pretending not to see it.
Illusion of Validity – Our tendency to overestimate our ability to accurately interpret and predict outcomes. We draw conclusions to make a story coherent and then ignore possible alternatives completely.
Hyperbolic Discounting – We are wired to prefer instant gratification (e.g. payouts). Even when offered significantly more in the future.
Post-Purchase Rationalisation – After a buying decision, we immediately erase all doubts and rationalize our decision. This works combined with the confirmation bias.
Illusion of Asymmetric Insight – We often believe our knowledge surpasses the knowledge of our peers.
False Consensus Effect – Too often, we overestimate the degree to which others agree with us.
Egocentric Bias – Tendency to ascribe oneself more responsibility for success than others or outside factors (e.g. luck or circumstance).
Pro-Innovation Bias – The tendency to overweight the possible usefulness and oversee risks.
Choice Supportive Bias – When we choose something, we feel positive about it. We disregard flaws or mistakes in our logic and switch to a state of cognitive ease.
Self-Serving Bias – We conceive our failures as situational while we claim full responsibility for our successes.
Curse of knowledge – Once we know something, it’s hard to imagine that other people don’t. We automatically assume that everyone else knows it, too.
Dunning-Kruger Effect – The less you know, the more confident you are. The more you know, the less confident you are.
This effect is similar to WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is)
Belief Bias – We determine the strength of an argument based on how plausible its conclusion is to us, not by how strongly it supports that conclusion.
Escalation of Commitment – We remain committed to things we already invested in.
Pulling out of them feels like a waste of resources. This even applies if pulling out is obviously the best option.
Gambler’s Fallacy – We tend to think that past events affect future possibilities.
Zero-Risk Bias – If a risk is considered small, we assume there is no risk at all.
Outgroup Homogeneity Bias – We perceive outgroup members as homogenous and ingroup members as more diverse.
Clustering Illusion – We always look for cause-effect relationships. Thus, we find patterns and clusters even in totally random data.
Blind Spot Bias – We overlook biases in our own decision-making and see them more in others.
Recency Bias – We tend to put too much weight on recent events.
When things are great, we think they will get only better.
When things are bad, we think they will get only worse.
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Hey, I’m Daniel, 22 years old and currently studying Economics and Finance.
Since the news business has changed from reporting to profits, keeping eyeballs is what it is all about.
Fox found this out after they accurately reported that Trump was projected to lose Arizona. Tucker Carlson then ranted about how their viewership was going down, along with the stock price with which he was richly compensated. He understood that their viewers were there to hear what they need to believe. And if they didn’t get it, they would move to Newsmax, Onan and other alternative news sources that would feed the beast.
Rush Limbaugh always understood that and bragged that he was an Entertainer. Are you entertained?
For any democracy to it operate efficiently, it needs an informed electorate. So how do you sort out the news from the fire hose of information flow these days?
1)Realize that your. 00001 experience of the world contributes to 80% of your worldview. Approach your understanding with a scientist skepticism that he’s always willing to accept that he could be wrong.
2)Intentionally expose yourself to opposing views. We don’t like to do this because it makes us uncomfortable. Over the years I have developed a diversity of writers that I follow on the hellscape that is Twitter. Most of us don’t have a luxury of time to do that. It’s not easy being free, when you don’t have an emperor to make all the decisions for you.
3) Turn off the Crisis News networks . If there isn’t good video footage, or if the victim isn’t attractive, you won’t hear about it . Just like the print media, television is all about eyeballs. Now there are live news events that television coverage excels at. Television Studios nowadays don’t need to wait for their cameras to warm up to go live. Walter Cronkite had to wait to give the world the shocking news about Kennedy being shot in Dallas.
4) Read some news sources from outside the United States bubble. Here are some free websites that also have free apps for your handhelds.
A good one to see the southeast Asian perspective on the world is the Asia Times https://asiatimes.com/
Also, try the Arab news source https://www.aljazeera.com/
France 24 for another perspective https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/
The Guardian is one of the few British rags that isn’t just a tabloid http://thrguardian.com/
If you can afford subscription the Financial Times, The Week, The Economist, Wall Street Journal and NY Times will cover a lot of area.
A great little tool that I use is an aggregator that ranks stories by their number of hits in real time. Bookmark this handy page
5) Last, but not least, Social Media is just that and not a source of verifiable information. Outrage and anger build engagement. Realize that you are being baited with these emotions to click on their stories.
Published: June 20, 2022 8.29am EDT
Imagine traveling back in time and observing the oceans of 5 million years ago.
As you stand on an ancient shoreline, you see several small whales in the distance, gliding along the surface of an ancient sea.
Suddenly, and without warning, an enormous creature erupts out of the depths.
With its massive jaws, the monster crushes one of the whales and drags it down into the deep. Large chunks of the body are ripped off and swallowed whole. The rest of the whales scatter.
You have just witnessed mealtime for megalodon – formally known as Otodus megalodon – the largest shark ever.
As a scientist who studies sharks and other ocean species, I am fascinated by the awesome marine predators that have appeared and disappeared through the eons.
That includes huge swimming reptiles like ichthyosaurs, plesiosaurs and the mosasaurs. These incredible predators lived during the time of the dinosaurs; megalodon would not appear for another 50 million years.
But when it did arrive on the scene, about 15 million to 20 million years ago, the megalodon must have been an incredible sight.
A fully grown individual weighed about 50 metric tons – that’s more than 110,000 pounds (50,000 kilograms) – and was 50 to 60 feet long (15 to 18 meters). This animal was longer than a school bus and as heavy as a railroad car!
Its jaws were up to 10 feet (3 meters) wide, the teeth up to 7 inches (17.8 centimeters) long and the bite force was 40,000 pounds per square inch (2,800 kilograms per square centimeter).
Not surprisingly, megalodons ate big prey. Scientists know this because they’ve found chips of megalodon teeth embedded in the bones of large marine animals. On the menu, along with whales: large fish, seals, sea lions, dolphins and other sharks.
Internet rumors persist that modern-day megalodons exist – that they still swim around in today’s oceans.
But that’s not true. Megalodons are extinct. They died out about 3.5 million years ago.
And scientists know this because, once again, they looked at the teeth. All sharks – including megalodons – produce and ultimately lose tens of thousands of teeth throughout their lives.
That means lots of those lost megalodon teeth are around as fossils. Some are found at the bottom of the ocean; others washed up on shore.
But nobody has ever found a megalodon tooth that’s less than 3.5 million years old. That’s one of the reasons scientists believe megalodon went extinct then.
What’s more, megalodons spent much of their time relatively close to shore, a place where they easily found prey.
So if megalodons still existed, people would certainly have seen them. They were way too big to miss; we would have lots of photographs and videos.Watch this PBS Eons video and learn more about the megalodon shark.
It probably wasn’t one single thing that led to the extinction of this amazing megapredator, but a complex mix of challenges.
First, the climate dramatically changed. Global water temperature dropped; that reduced the area where megalodon, a warm-water shark, could thrive.
Second, because of the changing climate, entire species that megalodon preyed upon vanished forever.
At the same time, competitors helped push megalodon to extinction – that includes the great white shark. Even though they were only one-third the size of megalodons, the great whites probably ate some of the same prey.
Then there were killer sperm whales, a now-extinct type of sperm whale. They grew as large as megalodon and had even bigger teeth. They were also warmblooded; that meant they enjoyed an expanded habitat, because living in cold waters wasn’t a problem.
Killer sperm whales probably traveled in groups, so they had an advantage when encountering a megalodon, which probably hunted alone.
The cooling seas, the disappearance of prey and the competition – it was all too much for the megalodon.
And that’s why you’ll never find a modern-day megalodon tooth.From NatGeo